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Quick Links - Trader's Corner   |   Trades of the Month   |   Forex Trader Tips

Trader's Corner

May 2007 - The month of May is traditional the most active month of the year in market volatility and direction. As mentioned in our newsletter last month, with several breaks of all time highs in April, May took the back seat in market action. The key to Forex profits is not just volatility, but the magnitude of that volatility – the bigger the wave the longer the ride. We saw very small magnitude moves with little follow through during the entire month which made for low profit trading.
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June 2007 - The month of May is traditional the most active month of the year in market volatility and direction. As mentioned in our newsletter last month, with several breaks of all time highs in April, May took the back seat in market action. The key to Forex profits is not just volatility, but the magnitude of that volatility – the bigger the wave the longer the ride. We saw very small magnitude moves with little follow through during the entire month which made for low profit trading.

The Forex market is known for its trending modes, yet 30 percent of the time the market does not trend....
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July 2007 - The month of July is always an unpredictable month. Sometimes you find July as flat as a desert and other times as bumpy as the Rocky Mountains. I seem to find time to go on vacation during the month of July. I only traded the first 10 days of the month and enjoyed the rest of the month off. If you had traded the On Target Trading System (OTTS) during the month of July you could have made upwards of 800+ pips*. There was a great deal of movement and we saw a new all-time high on the EUR/USD and a 26-Year high on the GBP/USD. The market ran very quickly when it moved, but still left a lot of margin of error for trend traders.
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August 2007 - We were glad when the month of August finally came to an end – boy was it a wild ride. August traditionally is usually a bit rocky at the beginning of the month as so many traders in Europe are getting back to work from their holiday. After the first two weeks, August was looking like a grand slam month with 334 pips in week one and 143 pips in week two we were rolling on the On Target. The Premier stepped it up as well with multiple daily trades that turned into instant profits. Then the “Credit Crisis” hit and we saw markets bust open. Every currency on the books was down as the long-term position holders dropped their positions by the truck loads.
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September 2007 - The Aftershock Hits the On Target - The aftershock of the “Credit Crisis” in August hit us in the month of September on our On Target Trading System. We saw a losing week the last week of August and that trend continued all the way through the end of September. With some very tight channels and quick trend switches we strived to keep things together by applying our Money Management strategies and minimizing our leverage on each trade.
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October 2007 - October was the month of the Premier Trading System. The long-term trend following system caught the wave of the market the last 2 ½ weeks of the month to put up some impressive numbers of +18  to +36 percent* depending on your leverage. Believe it or not, the initial drawdown of 6 to 12 percent during the very first week of the month was where we added most of our additional position through dollar-cost-averaging. During times of correction prices are cheaper and the old school trading strategy of buy low and sell high was in play. Once the market corrected back to the long-term trend we saw profits stack up. The runs on the Euro against the US Dollar reaching an all-time high almost every week and the fresh highs on the Canadian Dollar against the British Pound and US Dollar were key participants in the high returns.
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Trade of the Month

June - The On Target Trading System (OTTS) looks for 3-wave moves and captures profits on waves 2 and 3. The Trade of the Month was actually two trades on the EURUSD capturing profits on both waves 2 and 3, predicting the full magnitude of each wave move. We made 124 pips on wave 2 and 98 pips on wave 3 for a total of 222 pips.
Click here to see 4-hour chart.

Click here to see 1-hour chart with Sell entries and price Targets.

July - We did see some great symmetry in the markets last month. This is a great example of how accurate the OTTS can be with its low-risk entry and pin-pointed targets. We got in this trade at 2.0509 buying the GBP/USD. We went negative on the trade a total of 3 pips before moving into profits. We predicted the full magnitude of the move within 15 pips or so for a total pip profit of 165 pips on the trade.

Click here to view the 60 min. chart.

 

Forex Trader Tips

What about Fundamental Analysis?
Most of the time we talk about Technical trading strategies and systems. The On Target Trading System and other trading systems used and taught by myself, Richard Ottley, use technical analysis exclusively in making trading decisions. What about Fundamental Analysis? Does it have the potential of creating consistent profits over time?
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Making Money with Support and Resistance Levels - Part I
“Look both ways before you cross the street,” is a phrase that we all heard as a child and now is a phrase that I say constantly to my own children. Why do we say this? Because we want our children to look for the potential dangers in front of them as well as those behind them. The same principle can be said with the forex market, but instead of looking for cars we are looking for support and resistance lines. Levels of support and resistance are what gives the markets shape and form. It is what keeps price from just drifting to the ends of the earth. Now to understand why these levels create shape to the markets you need to understand how they came about. We will cover the reasons why in this months tip and we will cover the what’s and how to make money from support and resistance levels in our next months tip.
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Making Money with Support and Resistance Levels - Part II
Looking Both Ways Part 2 – Last week we talked about how support and resistance lines are create. Now let’s explore a few ways to make money with these levels.  

The first is Profit Targets. The majority of traders trade on emotion and close their trades when, “They have made enough money.” The problem with most traders is they have never made enough money. Just like Las Vegas, they stay in the game too long and give back all their profits to the house. Using support and resistance lines as levels to take your money off the table is a consistently winning strategy. What I like to do is to look for a close level of support/resistance for my Target 1 and then look at a further away support/resistance for Target 2. Once I hit Target 1, I take half of the lots off the table realizing profits, and then I allow the other half to ride toward Target 2. To conserve capital and eliminate the risk of loss, I will bring my stop loss up to breakeven or even set-up a trailing stop. Remember when you are in Buy trade you are looking for the next level of resistance to place your targets and if you are in a Sell trade then you are looking for the next level of support. 
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Money Management
We have talked about it before and we will say it again, “The most important part of your trading strategy is Money Management.” The dead bodies that the wild moves left behind last month was do to lack of wise Money Management. I spoke to several people that have been trading for years and they got slaughtered in the month of August, losing up to 80% of their accounts. The problem with most traders is they think that Money Management is just placing a stop loss. That is part of the story but only the beginning. In the next couple of Trader’s Tip reports, we will share with you the whole picture including:
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          Placing a correct stop loss
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          Lot Sizing according to risk
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          Playing the bench
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          Liquid Money Management™

Check back next month as we talk about placing a fool proof stop loss. Happy Trading!

A Losing Month
After a month like this it is wise to step back and analyze your trading. Understand that to participate in the forex market long term you are going to have losing months. The goal is to not let the losing month detour you from trading your system and plan into the future. The Fear and Greed Factor will destroy your trading if you let it. Yes, you lost, but if you used proper money management you should still be in the game. I have traders all the time tell me that they are “sitting out for awhile.” This I highly suggest against! Why? Well, does Tiger Woods sit out a few golf Tournaments when he doesn’t finish in the top five in one tournament? Absolutely not! He is back on the green working out the kinks in his system of golf and so must you as a forex trader – get back in the game and work out your kinks of trading. Now, don’t take out your frustrations on the market, but rather resort to our learning philosophy, “Learn, Simulate, Trade, Profit.” Go back, analyze your strategy and trading rules, review them in your mind. Simulate a few months of trading data, including the losing month to see if there was anything that you could have done better – learn from it. Then get back in the game to Trade and Profit. Endurance is more important than returns. If you have a good trading system, like the On Target and Premier Trading Systems, then you simply need to trade your plan and get back in the game. If you do, you will look back and that losing month will be dwarfed by consistent trading profits.* Happy Trading!

Diversification
Diversification is the key to any successful portfolio over the long term. The investor’s greed is shown when he/she only wants to invest in the highest yielding investment without analyzing why one is higher and why one is lower. By diversifying in two great strategies, like the On Target and Premier, that each have different goals and objectives, you reduce the risk of loss during unpredictable markets. When the market is good, all accounts are making money. The key to diversification is to maintain capital growth even during bumpy markets. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify between currency pairs and also trading strategies for long-term capital wealth. Happy Trading!

 

*DISCLAIMER: Trading the Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The content of this website is in no way a solicitation to buy/sell securities. To read a complete CFTC Risk Disclosure Statement please click here.  Copyright 2007 PRO FINANCIAL FX, LLC. 


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